Dominance and Decline: Making Sense of Recent Canadian Elections
Published: March 2012© 2012
Imprint: University of Toronto Press
Page Count: 240 Pages
Dimensions: 6.00 x 8.90
240 Pages, 6.00 x 8.90 x 0.60 in
Coming out of the 2000 Canadian federal election, the dominance of the Liberal Party seemed assured. By 2011 the situation had completely reversed: the Liberals suffered a crushing defeat, failing even to become the official opposition and recording their lowest ever share of the vote. Dominance and Decline provides a comprehensive, comparative account of Canadian election outcomes from 2000 through to 2008. The book explores the meaning of those outcomes within the context of the larger changes that have marked Canada's party system since 1988. It also shows how these trends were consistent with the outcome of the 2011 federal election. Throughout the book a variety of voting theories are revisited and reassessed in light of this analysis.
1. Explaining Vote Choice
2. The Changing Social Bases of Party Support
3. Values and Beliefs
4. Party Loyalties
5. Does the Economy Matter?
6. The Issues and the Vote
7. Party Leaders: "The Superstars" of Canadian Politics?
8. Strategic Considerations
9. The Greens and the Perils of Being a "Single-Issue" Party
10. Electoral Dynamics in Quebec
11. The Shifting Contours of Canadian Elections
Appendix A: Estimating the Multistage Models
Appendix B: Values and Beliefs
Appendix C: The Determinants of Vote Choice
This sophisticated yet accessible analysis of voting behaviour in recent Canadian elections makes sense of the remarkable collapse of the Liberal Party of Canada and the rise of the Conservative Party. The book tells a nuanced and compelling story of a changing electorate and a party unable to rebound from a scandal, and reminds readers of the volatility that makes Canadian electoral politics so fascinating. Lisa Young, University of Calgary